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US Real Gross Domestic Product
(Q4 2022)

Posted on January 6, 2023

Forecast Lowered Given Signals From Bond Market; Mild Decline to Characterize Majority of 2024

US Real Gross Domestic Product is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. GDP includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports minus imports that occur within a defined territory. Put simply, GDP is a broad measurement of a nation’s overall economic activity.

ITR Economics has classified this index as being in phase C of the business cycle. Phase C or “Slowing Growth” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is positive, but the rate of growth is declining. We denote this phase with yellow (for caution).

US Real Gross Domestic Product will continue in phase C through Q4 2023, giving way to phase D in Q1 2024. Phase D or “Recession” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is declining, and the rate of growth is negative. We denote this phase with red (for warning).

ITR forecasts the annual growth rate for 2022 at 0.7%, 0.9% in 2023, and -0.3% in 2024.

READ THE FULL Q4 2022 REPORT FROM ITR

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