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US Industrial Production Index
(Q4 2023)

Posted on January 4, 2024

Expect Phase D, Recession, in the Near Term as Inventories Build and Demand Softens

The US Industrial Production Index is an index of total industrial production in the United States; including manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

ITR Economics has classified this index as being in phase C of the business cycle. Phase C or “Slowing Growth” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is positive, but the rate of growth is declining. We denote this phase with yellow (for caution).

US Industrial Production will give way to phase D in Q1 2024. Phase D or “Recession” occurs when the annual growth rate (12/12) is declining, and the rate of growth is negative. We denote this phase with red (for warning).

ITR forecasts the annual growth rate for 2023 at 0.2%, -3.6% in 2024, and 2.0% in 2025.

READ THE FULL Q4 2023 REPORT FROM ITR

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